How our model works
No hot takes, no gut feelings. Every pick is a number produced the same way, every week — and we show you how we got there.
What goes into every pick
Target share and snap share — the two strongest signals in the model. Opportunity comes before everything else.
Red zone touches: carries and catches inside the opponent's 20, where touchdowns actually happen.
How many touchdowns that defense gives up to his position specifically — a defense can be tough on running backs and soft on tight ends.
The Vegas total and spread. A shootout creates more scoring chances; a blowout changes who gets the ball late.
A red zone touch isn't worth the same to everyone — for a running back it's worth roughly three times what it's worth to a receiver, because it's usually a carry from the two-yard line. Our model accounts for that, so a 35% on a tight end means the same thing as a 35% on a wideout. Most models pool every position together and quietly get this wrong.
What we don't use
Touchdowns are noisy and don't repeat well. Opportunity does.
Small samples that swing wildly year to year. A player with heavy usage and few scores is usually due, not broken.
Every player is scored the same way, whether he's a star or a backup.
What it can't see
We'd rather tell you the limits than pretend there aren't any:
- Injuries and depth-chart changes. If the starter ahead of someone just got ruled out, the model doesn't know yet. Always check the news before you bet.
- Very high numbers run hot. Picks above 50% hit slightly less often than they claim. More seasons of data will fix it; until then, shade those down a touch.
- Rookies and new arrivals. With no NFL usage to learn from, they get a league-average starting point.
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